The DLSU - Angelo King Institute for Economic and Business Studies
cordially invites you to the
DLSU-AKI Paper Presentation
"Alternatives to CPI-Based Inflation"
by
Neriza Chow*
Andrew Adrian Pua
Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics
De La Salle University
on
13 May 2026 (Wednesday), 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM
To join, please register through this link: https://forms.gle/BYZgU2g3pNengweT8
or scan the QR code at the poster.
cordially invites you to the
DLSU-AKI Paper Presentation
"Alternatives to CPI-Based Inflation"
by
Neriza Chow*
Andrew Adrian Pua
Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics
De La Salle University
on
13 May 2026 (Wednesday), 1:00 PM to 2:30 PM
To join, please register through this link: https://forms.gle/BYZgU2g3pNengweT8
or scan the QR code at the poster.
Abstract:
To supplement the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation, we propose an alternative measure of inflation using implicit deflators derived from the national accounts (Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE), and Total Supply (TS)). To make these measures timely, we estimate the monthly series of the quarterly national accounts using the temporal disaggregation method of Poissonnier (2017), from which we obtain the implicit deflators. We use Time-Varying Granger Causality (TVGC) tests to evaluate additional predictive content of these measures over CPI. Overall, we see a bi-directional relationship among the deflator-based inflation measures and CPI inflation. We observe that the TS deflator-based inflation measure demonstrates significant, unidirectional, and time-varying predictive content for CPI from 2022 to 2025. This suggests that the TS deflator captures external inflationary signals which are not immediately reflected in CPI inflation.
About the Presenter:
Neriza Chow is a Ph.D. Candidate at the De La Salle University’s Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics (CLT-SOE). She completed both her Master of Science in Finance and Bachelor of Science in Statistics at the University of the Philippines, Diliman. Her research interests include labor and macroeconomics, and econometric modeling and forecasting with mixed-frequency data, applying techniques such as smooth forecast reconciliation and pseudo-panel analysis.
To supplement the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as a measure of inflation, we propose an alternative measure of inflation using implicit deflators derived from the national accounts (Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Household Final Consumption Expenditure (HFCE), and Total Supply (TS)). To make these measures timely, we estimate the monthly series of the quarterly national accounts using the temporal disaggregation method of Poissonnier (2017), from which we obtain the implicit deflators. We use Time-Varying Granger Causality (TVGC) tests to evaluate additional predictive content of these measures over CPI. Overall, we see a bi-directional relationship among the deflator-based inflation measures and CPI inflation. We observe that the TS deflator-based inflation measure demonstrates significant, unidirectional, and time-varying predictive content for CPI from 2022 to 2025. This suggests that the TS deflator captures external inflationary signals which are not immediately reflected in CPI inflation.
About the Presenter:
Neriza Chow is a Ph.D. Candidate at the De La Salle University’s Carlos L. Tiu School of Economics (CLT-SOE). She completed both her Master of Science in Finance and Bachelor of Science in Statistics at the University of the Philippines, Diliman. Her research interests include labor and macroeconomics, and econometric modeling and forecasting with mixed-frequency data, applying techniques such as smooth forecast reconciliation and pseudo-panel analysis.